24 in ‘27: new RWC qualifying
With the men’s Rugby World Cup expanding for 2027, which nations & continents could benefit?
With the 2027 edition of the Rugby World Cup tournament set to expand to 24 teams, that means that, under the current qualification format, there will only be 12 of the 24 teams qualified, instead of 12 of the 20 teams qualified, like it has been for the last 2 decades or so.
Currently, the qualified teams are the 2027 hosts (Australia,) the 2023 quarter-finalists (France, New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland, Wales, Fiji, England, and Argentina,) and 3rd place in the 2023 pools (Italy, Scotland, and Japan.)
To little surprise, this means that the teams of the Six Nations and Rugby Championship have automatically qualified, as well as Japan and Fiji…the exact same automatic qualifiers as 2019. This can actually help us, as we can now know what the allocation is for a 20 team tournament, as all we need to do is follow the qualifiers for 2023.
Here are the current qualifiers; continental groups are accompanied by the nation which qualified for 2023:
Africa 1 - Namibia
Americas 1 - Uruguay
Americas 2 - Chile
Europe 1 - Georgia
Europe 2 - Romania
Oceania - Samoa
Asia/Pacific Playoff - Tonga
Final Qualifying Tournament (FQT) - Portugal
With these allocations already in place, we can now try to expand the qualification process, giving 4 more nations the opportunity to represent themselves on the biggest rugby stage.
Firstly, let’s address the red, white, and blue elephant in the room; World Rugby would ideally prefer to have their future hosts - the USA - appear at the 2027 Rugby World Cup. As has been shown, the current qualification format can prevent any North American team from making it to the Rugby World Cup, yet to revert back to the previous qualifying format would be an unfair detriment to the growth of South American teams, such as Uruguay and Chile. To improve qualification, while retaining parity, is to divide the Americas into North & South. If the Asia-Pacific-Americas Championship is to take place, you can use it to determine the highest ranked North and South American teams over 2 years, similar to the Rugby Europe Championship. An “Americas playoff” slot can be decided in a series between the second-ranked teams of each continent, with the loser going to the FQT.
Secondly, we can keep the Asia/Pacific Playoff qualification spot, but change it to a secondary round, allowing for the creation of an Asia 1 spot. This will lead to further representation of Asian teams, besides solely Japan. This can be the winner of the Asia Rugby Championship, with 2nd place advancing to the Asia/Pacific playoff. The loser of the A/P playoff series will advance to the FQT.
Thirdly, an Africa 2 slot can help boost the sport on the continent, beyond South Africa and Namibia. If Africa 1 is decided by the Africa Cup, then Africa 2 can be decided in a series with the 2nd placed team, as well as the winner of the Bronze medal of the Africa Cup. The winner advances as Africa 2; the loser advances to the FQT.
Finally, a 3rd team from Europe may be given an opportunity to advance. Currently, the Rugby Europe Championship decides Europe 1 & 2 over a 2-year playout of the series. This can continue, with a further playoff series between 3rd & 4th to determine who claims Europe 3. The loser of this series will advance to the FQT. (This is also assuming that all players are legal, and we don’t have another Spain situation.)
That leaves us with the new qualifiers giving us 12 teams, to give us a grand total of 24. For the sake of example, the teams chosen beloware based on World Rugby’s men’s rankings, from 11th October 2023:
Africa 1 - Namibia
Africa 2 - Zimbabwe
North America - USA
South America - Uruguay
Americas Playoff - Chile
Europe 1 - Georgia
Europe 2 - Portugal
Europe 3 - Spain
Oceania - Samoa
Asia 1 - Hong Kong China
Asia/Pacific Playoff -Tonga
FQT - Romania
Annoyingly, this still means that Canada would fail to qualify for the next men’s Rugby World Cup…but this is just an approximation of what World Rugby could do (and seeing as it makes sense, probably what they won’t do.) But a lot can happen between now and qualifying - with the right investment, training, and coaching, we can hope to see Canada men’s XV return to the biggest stage in rugby.